Battle of wits over Senate 2014 map

National Democrats have gone dark in Kentucky but are pumping $1 million into Georgia. Republicans cut off their candidate in Michigan but are going big in North Carolina.

Twenty days out from the election, the Senate map chess-match is in full swing, with both sides making wrenching decisions about how to spend limited pools of cash — bets that will undoubtedly result in Wednesday-morning quarterbacking on Nov. 5.

Here’s a look at what we’ve learned about the battle for the Senate from the parties’ spending choices over the past week.

Grimes will probably lose.

The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s $2 million worth of ad spending for Grimes ended on Monday, and the committee hasn’t booked more. Senate Majority PAC, the top Democratic outside group, also has no reservations. Both groups could still go back on TV if their internal polling showed the race tightening, or if Senate Majority PAC got a big infusion of outside cash.

(Also on POLITICO: Poll: Wisconsin governor's race tied)

Kentuckians for Strong Leadership, the pro- McConnell Super PAC, is spending $1.2 million this week and a similar amount next week. McConnell told the National Republican Senatorial Committee officials at the start of the election cycle not to spend money on his behalf.

Eleven of the past 12 public polls have shown McConnell ahead, albeit often narrowly; a SurveyUSA poll last week, showing Grimes up 2 points, was an outlier. The sole debate of the race, on Monday night, produced no moment to change the underlying dynamic of the race.

Still, Democrats aren’t completely throwing in the towel. DSCC executive director Guy Cecil tweeted Tuesday night that he just wired $300,000 for get-out-the-vote efforts in the state.

Georgia has always been more winnable for Democrats than Kentucky.

The DSCC put $1 million more into Georgia yesterday, specifically on Atlanta broadcast, to capitalize on internal polls that show Democrat Michelle Nunn taking a slight lead — and close to the majority she needs to avoid a January runoff.

(Also on POLITICO: DSCC still polling Kentucky race)

Though Grimes has always been a darling of the donor class, primarily because of how much they loathe McConnell, Kentucky is a deep-red state that Mitt Romney carried by 23 points two years ago, and taking out an entrenched incumbent was always a daunting undertaking.

Georgia, on the other hand, only went for Romney by 8 points. There is a large and growing African-American and Hispanic population, especially in the Atlanta metro area. Democrats believe the state is trending purple, possibly enough to capitalize this year in an open-seat race.

Republican David Perdue, a first-time candidate, is getting hammered for saying during a 2005 deposition that he’s spent his career outsourcing.

A SurveyUSA poll published Wednesday had Nunn up 3 points among likely voters, 48 percent to 45 percent, with Libertarian Amanda Swafford getting 3 percent. It’s the first time Nunn led in that poll.

Democrats are not cutting off any of their incumbents.

None of the four senators up for reelection in red states will be victims of triage. The DSCC raised $16 million in September and entered this month with $14.2 million in cash on hand, so it won’t need to write off any incumbent.

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The DSCC has not reserved time yet for an expected December runoff in Louisiana, on the grounds that Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu could still win outright in the November “jungle” primary. If the majority is on the line, neither side will have a hard time getting the resources it needs.

In 2010, Arkansas Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln was trailing by double digits in every poll. It was obvious she’d lose, and the party spent accordingly. This year Arkansas Sen. Mark Pryor trails in most public polls, but he’s kept it surprisingly close, and the national party continues to plow money into the state.

North Carolina is more winnable for Republicans than it looked last week.

After looking at fresh internal tracking polls, NRSC strategists decided Monday morning to drop another $6.5 million into the Tar Heel State. It was an unequivocal rejoinder to a stream of recent stories about Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan putting distance between herself and her Republican opponent, statehouse speaker Thom Tillis....