Davis and the ever-longer odds

DALLAS — The closer Wendy Davis gets to Election Day, the more of a longshot her bid for governor seems.

Her hometown newspaper endorsed her opponent in the Texas race over the weekend. The Supreme Court’s decision to allow for a voter identification requirement has Democrats here even more worried about turnout. And in Texas political circles, the question is not whether Davis will lose, but by how much.

On Sunday, Davis appeared to acknowledge that dynamic as she spent a frenzied afternoon seeking to rally her base.

“When I ran in 2008 in my [state] senate district, which was drawn by a Republican and was represented by a long-incumbent Republican, everyone said it could not be done,” Davis said as she campaigned with Leigh Bailey, a candidate for state representative. “And we proved them wrong, and we’re going to prove them wrong for Leigh Bailey and for this election as well.”

(Also on POLITICO: Greg Abbott: ‘Attack guy in a wheelchair’)

Davis is running against Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott, who is heavily favored to win in a state that remains strongly Republican. The Democratic state senator had a spectacular rise to national fame in 2013, after she filibustered and temporarily derailed a restrictive abortion measure.

But as the governor’s race took off and her chances looked increasingly slim, the national spotlight largely faded or, when it did return, was less than flattering.

Recently, observers in Washington winced in response to a Davis ad that invoked Abbott’s wheelchair. The Republican was paralyzed years ago after a tree fell on him; Davis’ ad noted that he was compensated but has sided against others others in similar circumstances.

The Davis on display on the sunny afternoon before early voting started was more diplomatic than that ad would suggest. She focused on issues such as improving public education, supporting affordable health care and raising the minimum wage. She referred to her own life’s story, which included being a young single mother living in a trailer park. While she set up a contrast with Abbott, her rhetoric against him was toned down.

(Also on POLITICO: Wendy Davis defends wheelchair ad)

At all three stops on Sunday, Davis came across as largely energetic and on message. She smiled as women approached her for hugs and attendees jostled for photos; at least one woman told her that she voted Republican all of her life, until this election. Teenagers demanded selfies and career advice. And the state senator was a good sport as a voter shoved a near-hairless dog toward her, spending a moment with the pet before speaking to a get-out-the-vote rally.

Still, the crowds were relatively small, and many Davis supporters seemed resigned to her losing on Nov. 4.

Outside the big cities, Texas “tends to vote so much more Republican, they’re not going to consider anyone else,” said Jerry Jacobs, a 72-year-old from Dallas. Asked how long he thought it would take for the state to flip, he replied that while he hopes change is coming, “I’ve read 10 years or so.”

Earl Gordon, who attends the majority black St. Paul’s Methodist Church in Dallas, which was Davis’ first stop, said that “if this church had all the votes, she’d get a big turnout.” Asked whether the state would turn blue, he replied: “I don’t know if this is the year. It’s going to be close.”

Davis had a tough act to follow at that church: the pastor, Richie Butler, who spoke for more than half an hour, delivered a rollicking sermon in which he invoked figures from fashion model Naomi Campbell to Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, sometimes jumping up and down to make a point. (He paraphrased Emanuel, who once said, “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste,” intoning: “Don’t let God plus a crisis go to waste.”)...