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Allianz Commercial: War becomes the number one political violence risk for more than 50% of companies globally

  • Written by Media Outreach
  • War in the Middle East redraws global risk landscape for companies and insurers.
  • Sabotage and civil unrest are also major business concerns with hundreds of incidents globally over the past five years, according to Allianz Research.
  • Regional domestic tensions predominate in Asia outside of the Middle East, with limited current impact to the PVT market, though a potential for a larger loss remains should these escalate into full blown war.
SINGAPORE - Media OutReach Newswire - 19 May 2026 - Political risks and violence has climbed to #7 in the annual Allianz Risk Barometer 2026, its highest position ever, highlighting the fact that such perils have joined mainstream business risks in a world of tumult. According to the new Political violence and civil unrest trends 2026 report from Allianz Commercial, war has overtaken civil unrest as the political violence exposure companies fear most (53% of all respondents globally), as conflicts in Europe and the Middle East disrupt global trade flows, strain political alliances, embolden adversarial powers and heighten risks to business assets. Around 60% of respondents from Europe and Asia-Pacific see war as the top risk. Civil unrest ranks at #2 globally (49%), terrorism/sabotage is at #3 (46%). The US / Iran conflict is currently dominating news cycles, having disrupted the global economy significantly. Businesses impacted by armed conflict face significant challenges, including supply chain disruptions, loss of market access, as well as the risk of cyber-attacks and sabotage, the report notes. Even before the Iran war, it is estimated that business assets had experienced a 20%+ increase in exposure to conflict in the last five years. For the insurance industry, and especially the Political Violence & Terrorism (PVT) business, the war in the Middle East may lead to significant losses in some areas and new risk assessments for selected key industries and regions. Based on current estimates, the financial loss quantum has the potential to result in a costlier event than PVT claims resulting from the war in Ukraine. "Wars, the threat of future conflicts and other political violence activities are likely to undermine geopolitical and economic stability in 2026 and for years to come. For many companies, there is a visibility gap when it comes to vulnerabilities in their physical and digital supply chains due to such geopolitical risks. Being able to identify these complex exposures is crucial. Risk managers must be relentlessly forward-looking with their resilience strategies, constantly refining them to keep pace with emerging threats as they arise from multiple sources, now and in the future," says Thomas Lillelund, CEO of Allianz Commercial.Civil unrest and sabotage remain significant concerns for companies Allianz Research has tracked around 250 reported strikes, riots, and civil commotion (SRCC) events over the last five years with active participation exceeding 1,000 people and lasting for more than one day. Pakistan experienced the most SRCC events with 11, followed by Indonesia. Other countries that experienced a high number of events include the US, Greece, Tunisia, Hungary, Iran, and India. Economic pressures, including cost-of-living issues, are fueling protests and strikes worldwide, with citizens demanding better governance and economic reforms. Most public protests around the world are peaceful, but significant insured losses occurred as a result of major unrest events in 2025. The Indonesian riots in August incurred over $50mn in insured losses, while Nepal's September protests could see insured losses higher than those caused by the catastrophic earthquake of 2015, which were more than $200mn. Depending on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East, a heightened risk of SRCC activity is also to be expected, particularly in countries heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil and gas or fertilizers. "The political violence landscape across Asia remains volatile, with civil unrest in countries such as Indonesia and Nepal, as well as domestic regional tensions including those between Pakistan and India, and Cambodia and Thailand. While some of these events have resulted in considerable losses, they generally have a limited impact on the overall political violence insurance market in the region due to their localized nature and minimal economic consequences. The real risk lies in the potential for these conflicts to escalate into full-scale wars between the respective nations," says Robert James, Senior Political Violence & Terrorism Underwriter, Allianz Commercial Asia. At the same time, acts of sabotage, including state-sponsored ones, have increased sharply in the last 18 months. On the global stage, the last four years have seen a surge in targeted and malicious attacks on critical infrastructure, such as undersea cables by Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) actors. These...

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