Neighborhood Retail Assets and Industrial/Logistics Sector Gain Investors’ Interest

• Since the Politburo's emphasis in its September 2024 meeting that authorities "must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery," Chinese mainland residential market sentiment has strengthened significantly, supporting a pick-up in primary market home sales
• Total investment volume in the Greater Bay Area (GBA) commercial real estate (CRE) market recorded RMB44.7 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of total Chinese mainland CRE investment volume
• The industrial/ logistics sector became sought-after, accounting for 22% of total investment volume in the GBA, with transaction activity in second-tier GBA cities performing notably well

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire - 14 January 2025 - Global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield today published its Greater Bay Area Residential and Investment Market 2024 Review and 2025 Outlook. In reviewing 2024, GBA residential market sentiment remained cautious in the first three quarters, due to the slower-than-expected pace of economic recovery and a lack of confidence among potential buyers. However, since the Central Government emphasized at the Politburo meeting that authorities "must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery," and put forward stimulus measures targeting both the demand and supply sides, residential transaction activity started to strengthen from October. The CRE investment market also began to show a steady uptrend from Q4 onwards, with neighborhood retail assets and the industrial/ logistics projects being the most sought-after by investors. GBA Residential Market Overall GBA residential market sentiment remained cautious in the first half of 2024 due to the economic slowdown in the Chinese mainland combined with a lack of confidence in the real estate market. Although overall GBA primary market residential transactions picked up in June following the introduction of the "517" new housing policies, the market then gradually digested the favorable impact in the subsequent months, failing to bring a sustained stimulus to residential transactions. In late September, the Central Government then emphasized at the Politburo meeting that authorities "must work to halt the real estate market decline and spur a stable recovery". Unlike the "517" new housing policies, which mainly targeted the demand side, this time the policies were designed to stimulate the market from both the demand and supply sides. The Central Government also introduced real estate measures summarized as "four cancellations, four reductions, and two additions," aimed at lowering the cost of entry for buyers,and boosting the market's confidence in developers' capital flow by encouraging local governments to use funds from special-purpose bonds to reclaim and acquire idle land and unsold units. Since October, the residential market has become more active, with transaction numbers picking up significantly. Around 40,000 transactions were recorded in the GBA primary residential market in October, growing 70% m-o-m. Transactions through Q4 showed a strong recovery, growing 42% y-o-y and 72% q-o-q, with new home sales in Shenzhen and Guangzhou surging 165% and 72% respectively over the same period last year. These figures reflect that with the support of favorable policies, residential transaction activity in the Greater Bay Area is gradually recovering. Although total primary market transactions for the full-year 2024 reached approximately 318,000 units, a 16% y-o-y drop from 2023, the decline was concentrated in the first three quarters. (Chart 1). Chart 1: GBA First-Hand Residential Sales Primary market home prices are more swayed by the quality level of newly launched projects, and first-hand residential prices in the nine GBA Chinese mainland cities showed a mixed trend in 2H 2024. Secondary market home prices generally better reflect current underlying trends, and National Bureau of Statistics data shows that Shenzhen secondary home prices had been in a correction of -9.2% for the first nine months of 2024. However, since the Central Government introduced a series of stimulus measures for the real estate market in September and October, in particular the special-purpose bonds to improve developers' cash flow, the sales price index of secondary market residential buildings in Shenzhen has stabilized, with m-o-m increases of 0.7% in October and 0.5% in November. We expect the price index in December to record similar growth to November, narrowing the annual decline to 7.7% (Chart 2). Chart 2: Change in Shenzhen Secondary Home Price Index Alva To, Cushman & Wakefield's Vice President, Greater China & Head of Consulting, Greater China said, "In reviewing the easing policies introduced in 2H 2024, the Central Government has not only stimulated housing demand but also strived to stabilize...