Balancing Global Dynamics

HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach Newswire - 4 December 2024 - Today, KGI has released its 2025 Market Outlook, covering regions including Mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the U.S., Singapore, and Indonesia. Reflecting on this year, the cooling of inflation and the labor market in the United States has brought the economy to a roughly balanced risk between employment and inflation. With Trump re-entering the White House, his policy propositions are poised to impact global economic development and shape the trend of medium and long-term interest rates. In China, domestic investment confidence remains weak. With the potential risk of the United States significantly increasing tariffs, Chinese exports may be affected. In response, China will introduce relevant measures to address these challenges. Under this backdrop, we recommend the "ACE" strategy for 2025:

1. Alternatives: Gold and cryptocurrencies — assets with lower correlation to traditional stocks and bonds.
2. Credit Selection: Prioritize high-rated bonds, focusing on opportunities in corporate bonds.
3. Elite Stocks: Prefer U.S. and Japanese stocks, maintain a preference for large-cap over small-cap, and pay attention to sector rotation.

Kenny Wen, Head of Investment Strategy at KGI, says:"Regarding asset allocation, based on our assessment of the global economy and geopolitical factors for 2025, investors can consider the ACE strategy: A is for Alternatives, which refers to diversifying into alternative assets to reduce portfolio volatility, with gold being a viable option. C is for Credit Selection, meaning carefully selecting investment-grade bonds to enhance potential income. Lastly, E is for Elite Stocks, where we prefer large-cap stocks, particularly from the U.S. and Japan." Macro and the U.S.Market Within developed markets, the U.S. economy may slow down more significantly than the current market consensus estimate. In other regions, the recovery in the Eurozone and the UK was weaker than expected, but the trend of year-on-year growth is still improving. It is expected that the overall performance will still lag behind the U.S., but the gap is narrowing. In China, the market is currently focused on whether the Central Economic Work Conference in December can propose effective fiscal "stimulus" policies; otherwise, achieving 5% economic growth in the future remains challenging. In the U.S., the manufacturing recovery has been weak, mainly due to overall weak capital expenditure. On the other hand, for the service sector, has shown unexpectedly strong performance, which has been key to the U.S. economy outperforming other mature markets over the past six months. However, with declining savings rates and increasing financial burdens, credit consumption momentum will weaken, potentially dragging on the U.S. economy in 2025. Trump's four major policies—tax cuts, increased tariffs, immigration restrictions, and financial deregulation—have an uncertain execution order, which may adversely affect inflation. Starting with restrictions on immigration and the implementation of tariffs, these policies are visible. Therefore, throughout the year, the four policies mentioned above may be announced in the first half, increasing the volatility of financial markets. However, higher economic risk for the United States is still in the second half of the year, and whether there will be improvement in the fourth quarter depends on the policy changes at that time. The U.S. has returned to a roughly balanced dual-risk target of employment and inflation, with core inflation expected to continue declining in 2025. However, Trump's increased tariffs and anti-immigration policies could lead to a resurgence in goods and services inflation, posing a risk of rising inflation again in 2026. The U.S. has returned to a state of full employment, with the unemployment rate for non-temporary jobs slowly rising, which may negatively affect the consumer spending. In terms of U.S. stock investment, after two consecutive years driven by the AI wave, the overall U.S. stock market is no longer cheap. However, we see opportunities for sector rotation in the future, mainly reflected in estimated earnings improvements, particularly in finance, materials, industrial, and healthcare sectors. From a timing perspective, we believe the positive post-election stance can be maintained in the first quarter, but starting in the second quarter, the risks of Trump's policies and economic downturn expectations will be reflected; risks will further increase in the second half, with the first half overall better than the second half. As for bond investment, under Republican full control, bond investment may be adversely affected. For...