• Businesses are increasingly witnessing the impact of protest movements and civil unrest on their operations, a trend that is forecast to grow
• A new report by AGCS identifies five factors likely to power ongoing incidences of political violence activity around the world
• Strikes, riots, and civil commotion racked up $12bn of losses for businesses and institutions from just six major incidents in recent years
• Businesses should view the current climate as a catalyst for evaluating best practices and policies around preparing office locations and employees for the impact of potential civil unrest.

MUNICH, GERMANY - Media OutReach - 28 February 2023 - Anger over growing social inequality and the cost-of-living, foundering faith in governments and institutions and increasingly polarized politics, together with a rise in activism and environmental concerns, are the main factors expected to fuel ongoing incidences of strikes, riots and civil commotion (SRCC) around the world, according to a new report from insurer Allianz Global Corporate & Specialty (AGCS). The heightened SRCC risk environment means businesses need to remain vigilant about the different threats such activity can pose. In addition to buildings or assets suffering costly material damage, operations can be severely disrupted, resulting in significant loss of income. "Incidences of strikes, riots and civil commotion have not only increased in recent years, they are also becoming more intense and catastrophic. These types of events are making our era one of uncertainty," says Srdjan Todorovic, Head of Political Violence and Hostile Environment Solutions at AGCS. "We have seen multibillion-dollar loss events in the US, Chile, and Colombia. The threat is changing, and although many of the reasons for it are universal – whether economic, political, or environmental – it can play out differently in different regions, with various levels of violence and disruption. Operational and security management within organizations should view the current climate as a catalyst for evaluating best practices and policies around preparing locations and employees for potential civil unrest and building resilience." Civil unrest risks rose in over 50% of countries between Q2 and Q3 2022 alone, according to the Verisk Maplecroft Civil Unrest Index - out of 198 countries, 101 saw an increase in risk. Since 2017, more than 400 significant anti-government protests have erupted worldwide. It is unsurprising then that 'political risks and violence' ranks as a top 10 peril in the Allianz Risk Barometer in 2023. While the Ukraine war is a major factor in this ranking, the results also show that the impact of SRCC activity ranks as a political violence risk of top concern with a combined score of almost 70%. Unrest is now spreading more quickly and widely thanks in part to the galvanizing effect of social media. This means multiple locations can be impacted, potentially resulting in multiple losses for companies. Such events are also lasting for longer - almost a quarter of the 400 significant anti-governments protests since 2017 were in excess of three months – helping to ensure financial costs are mounting. Reported damages from just six civil unrest events around the world between 2018 and 2023 resulted in at least $12bn in economic/insured losses.Five risk drivers of civil unrest In the report AGCS' political violence team highlight the five main factors they expect to power further SRCC activity in 2023 and beyond: The ongoing cost-of-living crisis: Although inflation is now thought to have peaked in many countries the after-effects continue to take their toll. Just over half of protests globally in 2022 were triggered by economic issues, and public confidence in the financial future is shaky. Half the countries surveyed in the 2023 Edelman Trust Barometer showed a year-over-year double-digit decline in the belief that their families will be better off in five years' time. Further protest activity is likely and although mostly peaceful, it can turn violent. Distrust of governments and institutions: Governments thought to be corrupt or perceived to have been in power for too long can bring people out onto the streets. Economic grievances about food, fuel, pay, or pensions can expand from issues-led demonstrations to wider anti-government movements. In 2022 and early 2023 protests ignited over the rights of women and minorities in Iran, fuel prices in Kazakhstan, economic failures in Sri Lanka, abortion rights in the US, and Covid restrictions in China. Europe continues to be hit by multiple strikes over pay and working conditions. Political instability in Peru, Brazil and Argentina has also resulted in widespread and violent protest. Increasing polarization: Political divisions are stoking tensions around the world undermining social cohesion and escalating conflict. Polarized opinions can become particularly...