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Global Governance Report Highlights Future Shock Risks as Democratic Accountability Slips and State Capacity Plateaus

  • Written by Media Outreach
LOS ANGELES, US - Newsaktuell - 7 May 2026 - The newly released 2026 Berggruen Governance Index (BGI) paints a mixed picture of global governance heading into a future of mounting shocks, finding widespread gains in public-goods provision from 2000 to 2023 even as democratic accountability edged down and state capacity showed little overall improvement. image
Presentation of the 2026 Berggruen Governance Index: On 6 May in Los Angeles, the following individuals discussed the findings of the study (from left): Vinay Lai (Professor of History, UCLA), Michael Storper (Distinguished Professor of Urban Planning, UCLA), Stella Ghervas (Professor of History, UCLA) and the two authors of the study, Joseph Saraceno and Prof. Helmut Anheier (both from UCLA's Luskin School of Public Affairs). Democracy News Alliance / Jordan Strauss/AP for DNA
The BGI, presented Wednesday by an international group of governance scholars, analyses measurable benchmarks of democratic accountability across 145 countries. On a 100-point scale, the global score for democratic accountability slipped slightly from 65 in 2000 to 64 in 2023, the most recent data used in the project. The wave of democratisation observed in the closing decades of the last century has stalled in the last 15 years. Democratic accountability fell in 54 countries while it improved in 48 countries. Yet the BGI — a collaborative project of the Luskin School of Public Affairs at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Berlin's Hertie School and the Berggruen Institute, a think tank headquartered in Los Angeles — captures remarkably widespread growth in provision of public goods. Encompassing healthcare, education, infrastructure, environmental sustainability and conditions to foster employment and rising prosperity, public goods improved in 135 of the countries studied, while declining slightly in just four. The global average jumped from 58 to 69 points from 2000 to 2023. The third component of what the BGI authors refer to as the "governance triangle" is state capacity, defined as the ability to tax, borrow and spend, control territory, operate scrupulous, competent bureaucracies and administer predictable rule of law. The index finds the global average ticking up from 48 to 49 points; 56 countries had increased state capacity while 57 declined. "What does it tell us about the world ahead?" Prof. Helmut K. Anheier, a Luskin School sociologist and BGI principal investigator, asked during the public release of the 2026 BGI on the UCLA campus. "Countries are not really improving in their governance performance in significant ways. ... We're not really having forward-looking investment in governance capacity. There is considerable inertia." The largest improvements across all three BGI components occurred in Gambia, which the report groups with "low-capacity developing states." These states score low across the board, particularly in the provision of public goods. This cluster constitutes the poorest countries with the least developed economies, which face the most serious challenges. "They have the greatest exposure to likely future crises, whether it's global warming, whether it's a new pandemic, whether it's another financial crisis, whether it's the impact of AI," Anheier said. "And they have the least capacity to respond to it." Bhutan, Georgia, Iraq and Tunisia — which make up the remaining top five countries with the largest improvements in the BGI — are classified as "capacity-constrained states." They tend to be middle-income with struggling democracies. These countries score higher across the board than the low-capacity developing states, but their state capacity tends to lag compared to public goods and democratic accountability. The capacity-constrained states risk falling into "a cycle that erodes the institutions they have built," Anheier said. "Consolidated democratic states", a cluster of most of the world's richest countries, which score highly in all three BGI components, have to confront domestic complacency. Further, in the United States and some others, "political dysfunction" is leaving mounting problems unaddressed and risking erosion of state capacity, Anheier said. At the other end of the spectrum, the country with the farthest fall on the BGI since 2000 is Nicaragua. Second from last is Venezuela, followed by Hong Kong, Hungary and Turkey. The rest of the bottom 10 are Russia, Iran, Poland, El Salvador and Belarus. Since 2023, which is the last year of data available for the study, Poland and Hungary have both seen government changes via election, despite serious democratic backsliding. Both had fallen out of the group of "consolidated democratic states" by 2023 and moved into the capacity constrained cluster. The other eight countries at the bottom of the list are all places that once had some semblance of competitive elections, but by now have little or no remaining pretense of democracy. They are...

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