Young guns vs. gavels

The Republican Party’s war within just opened a new front: Senate committees.

As the party takes control of the Senate, establishment Republicans like Thad Cochran, Orrin Hatch, Chuck Grassley and John McCain are about to pick up the chairman’s gavel, setting up a classic conflict between governing and campaigning with the party’s White House-aspiring young guns like Ted Cruz, Rand Paul and Marco Rubio. On everything from foreign aid and military funding to how to undermine Obamacare, Republicans are just as likely to clash with each other as with President Barack Obama.

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Here, then, is POLITICO’s guide to how it will play out as the Senate’s committees change hands.

(Also on POLITICO: The war over Obama's new war in Iraq)

Our survey looks at the 16 legislative committees, identifying the likely chairmen and interviewing many of them and their top aides. The story that emerges is one of ideological divide and tactical debate, with an inherent tension in the committees — between the gavel holders and the 2016 stars — making hearing rooms worth watching as Republicans try to prove they aren’t just a party of no.

Younger conservatives hope to pass bold conservative blueprints on core issues like health care and taxes, even if they’re doomed to face a presidential veto. Committee chairmen believe that governing requires sometimes putting the possible ahead of the ideal.

“When you look at who’s coming up with the ideas in the Senate, they tend to come from people like Paul and Cruz and Rubio,” said Dan Holler, a spokesman for Heritage Action for America. “Even within the leadership of the Senate, they know the ideas that are going to excite and energize the party are going to come from those … guys.”

Paul, for example, is trying to steer the Republican Party to become more skeptical of military action and foreign aid. He’ll have McCain on his tail — because the new Armed Services chairman is sure to keep warning that Paul’s ideas would weaken America’s position of leadership in the world.

(Also on POLITICO: In politics, 40 is the new 50)

And then there’s Cruz, who wants to keep throwing red meat to the base by picking fights with Obama on everything, but especially Obamacare. A lot of conservative activists will side with Cruz, and committee chairmen like Hatch could find themselves in trouble if they don’t sign on to an agenda of repealing the entire health care law through the budget reconciliation process, rather than just the most unpopular parts — a strategy that would guarantee a veto from Obama.

That prospect has GOP strategists worried about the implications for the party, since a closely divided Senate would give a lot of power to a single senator — like Cruz — to hold things up if they don’t get their way.

“The tension is going to be, do they want to reach agreements — and does President Obama want to reach agreements — and if the answer is yes, are they able to do that, or does a presidential candidate who’s running to the right stop any agreements from taking place?” said Ari Fleischer, a former White House press secretary who has also served as a top Senate GOP aide.

Still, some GOP strategists hope to find a third option between compromising with Democrats on divisive issues and imposing a hard-right agenda: finding issues on which the Republican base is comfortable — such as promoting international trade, approving the Keystone XL pipeline and repealing the medical-device tax — and trying to peel off enough Democratic support to make them law. “I think the hope is that things move forward,” said the veteran Republican pollster David Winston. “For a whole lot of reasons, there’s going to be a focus on jobs and the economy, and then after that there will be an assessment of what’s achievable and what’s not.”

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Then again, the ranks of the new committee chairmen will include enough hard-line conservatives to ensure regular clashes with the White House. Jim Inhofe of Oklahoma, the likely new chairman of Environment and Public Works, a climate change skeptic, is prepared to challenge Environmental Protection Agency rules across the board, especially the greenhouse gas emissions rule. And Jeff Sessions, who’s set to become the new Budget Committee chairman, opposed last year’s bipartisan deal to put sequestration on hold for two years — not a good sign given that the cuts are about to hit again.

Even the most combative chairmen, however, may not be on the same page as the 2016-ers, who will want to set up fights big enough to define the future of the country. “I think the tension is going to be present for the next two years,” said Fleischer.

Intro by David Nather, senior policy reporter

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The Committee: Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry

The Chair: Pat Roberts (Kansas)

The Lowdown: Roberts could throw a major wrinkle into what has been so far a smooth implementation by the Obama administration of the five-year, $500 billion farm bill signed in February. The self-styled champion of Midwest farmers cast an emphatic “no” vote on the bill because it failed to rein in spending on food stamps, tied crop insurance to conservation restrictions and brought back crop subsidies based on “target prices” — something Roberts says will encourage farmers to ignore market demand and plant for government checks.

Roberts could also tackle the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposed “Waters of the U.S.” rule. Democrats had given the lead to the Environment and Public Works Committee on the proposal, which the farm lobby says will bury them under permit requirements and red tape by expanding the types of bodies of water the agency protects. Roberts, though, is expected to use the Agriculture Committee gavel to broaden the GOP fight against the proposal. The Kansas Farm Bureau — one of the strongest sources of support for Roberts during his latest election battle — has made withdrawal or revision of the rule a priority, and so will Roberts.

Roberts’ Top Bills:

• Amend the Federal Insecticide,...