Amash heads into homestretch confident

BYRON CENTER, Mich. — Rep. Justin Amash was supposed to be the next big target of the establishment wing of the Republican Party, sweating all the way to the finish line.

Instead, campaigning just two weeks before his primary, Amash seemed almost carefree. “Things are going great,” he said after a parade this weekend in this Grand Rapids, Mich., suburb.

His confidence is for good reason. Many GOP operatives had been outspoken about their hopes to kick out Amash this cycle for being what they viewed as too extreme in his tea party positions. But while the establishment deployed a shock and awe strategy for Sen. Thad Cochran in Mississippi and Rep. Mike Simpson in Idaho this year when they feared losing primaries against tea party rivals, no intense effort has materialized against Amash.

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The race in Michigan underscores that while Republicans say they are done with the tea party, the pro-business wing is reluctant to play the dirty game of taking out one of their own—even when it comes to a despised figure like Amash, who has repeatedly voted against much of the rest of the party.

So for challenger Brian Ellis, all the national attention and endorsements have not translated into resources. He even had to loan his campaign a million dollars to stay in the game. The investment banker still finds himself trailing in the polls.

Operatives say it was a big deal just to get Ellis, an outsider, an endorsement from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which almost never backs a challenger in a primary. Getting money to knock out an incumbent would be almost unheard of, even to send a message to the tea party. Plus, business has its eye on the Senate, which is within Republicans’ grasp this year.

“Brian had to do a lot of things — establish a grassroots network, a compelling narrative and a groundswell movement,” said Stu Sandler, a veteran GOP Michigan operative who is not working on the race. “He could have used more funding to get those things up and running earlier.”

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While the race isn’t over, Amash has reason to feel good: the most recent polls have him up by large margins and conventional wisdom among GOP operatives is that Amash will ride to victory.

It wasn’t supposed to be this way. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce went so far as to endorse Ellis. It was a stunning move, since the Big Business lobby rarely endorses a non-incumbent in a primary.

But that’s pretty much where the national support stopped.

Amash said he wasn’t surprised the establishment has largely steered clear of the race.

“They’ve been winning in places across the country because they’ve been dumping in millions of dollars to fend of fairly weak candidates,” Amash said. “When you have a strong incumbent in the district who is well-liked in the district their game doesn’t work anymore. I think they are being made aware of that.”

Still, Michigan state Republican operatives say that national groups like Crossroads or assistance from the National Republican Congressional Committee could have tipped the balance of the scale for Ellis.

Sandler said outside groups could have helped early in the race to try and bring Amash’s favorable numbers down by running ads in order to free up Ellis’ cash to promote himself and raise his name identification.

Just look at the money. Ellis had to loan himself $1 million on top of the $687,000 he raised from individuals and other committees. Meanwhile, Amash has raised $1.6 million from individuals and other committees. And while the national groups were MIA for Ellis, Amash has also gotten aide from big money conservative groups like Americans for Prosperity and Club for Growth that put up money for ads early in the race to help him. CFG has also done its own poll and helped bundle money for the Republican lawmaker.

“It should come as no surprise to anyone that our PAC would support a candidate with a pristine record on our issues in a primary against a self-funder with a record of supporting tax increases and corporate welfare,” said Club for Growth’s Barney Keller, noting Amash’s 100 percent rating on the Club’s congressional scorecard.

The same can’t be said for GOP leaders supporting Amash. While a few House lawmakers frustrated by Amash like Rep. Devin Nunes (Calif.) and retiring Michigan Rep. Mike Rogers have cut checks of their own and retiring Rep. Buck McKeon (Calif.) recently held a fundraiser for Ellis, Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) and other GOP leaders have steered clear of the race....