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  • Written by Steve Miley

A rebound and consolidation effort over the past week into mid-September 2020 across global equity averages, to try to reject the significant selloff seen from early September, driven by stretched US tech stocks.

This recovery effort has seen an attempt to resume the “risk on” theme, which has both benefitted the Australian Dollar, but also seen the US Dollar weaken again (as a safe haven currency).

The AUDUSD rebound into mid-September sets risk for a more bullish theme to resume into the second half of this month.

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AUDUSD day trade outlook: Upside threats

Day trade update and view

A Friday consolidation after Thursday's push up to .7325 (above 7309/11 resistance) and the rebound from below the up trend line from mid-July, but from .7186 (just above our .7184 support level), to retain the bull forces from the early September push to a new cycle high at .7413, to keep the risk higher into the start of this week.

Day trade setup

We see an upside bias for .7325 and .7340; a break here aims for .7382 and maybe .7413.

But below .7244 opens risk down to .7224/20 and possibly the .7186/84 zone.

AUDUSD intermediate-term outlook

The early April push surge above .6214 set an intermediate-term bull trend.

Upside threat: We see an intermediate-term bull trend for .7500, .7677 and .7813, even the psychological/ option barrier at .8000.

What changes this? Below .7136/32/28 switches the intermediate-term bull trend to neutral and below .7060 to an intermediate-term bear trend.

6 Hour AUDUSD Chart

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