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Hong Kong Residential Market Sentiment Turns Cautious as Interest Rate Outlook Shifts

  • Written by Media Outreach

Grade A Office Availability Rate Drops Further, High Street Leasing Activities Focus on Kowloon

  • Residential Market: Market sentiment turned more cautious in Q3, with total residential transaction numbers slipping by 40% q-o-q and 21% y-o-y to record around 13,240 cases. Home prices softened by 0.8% between July and August, yet, supported by stronger 1H performance, still recorded a cumulative rise of 7% in the first eight months of 2026.
  • Grade A Office Market: Citywide net absorption reached 412,400 sq ft in Q3, mainly driven by expansion activities by the banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI) sector. Rents in Greater Central continued to pick up, while rental level declines in non-core submarkets narrowed. The overall office market rental level is expected to rise by +5% to +7% in 2026.
  • Retail Market: Overall retail sales growth remained resilient on the back of growing tourist arrivals and stronger economic fundamentals supporting local consumption sentiment. The overall high street vacancy rate remained broadly stable in Q3, with leasing activities concentrated in Mongkok and Tsimshatsui.
HONG KONG SAR – Media OutReach Newswire – 5 October 2026 – Global real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield today held its Hong Kong Property Markets Q3 2026 Review andOutlook press conference. The Hong Kong residential market entered a consolidation phase in Q3 amid a shift in the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate outlook, increased stock market volatility, and tighter cross-border capital controls in the Chinese mainland. Against this backdrop, residential transaction numbers dropped by 40% q-o-q to record around 13,240 cases in Q3, while home prices declined by 0.8% during July and August. In the Grade A office market, the total new leased area for Q3 reached 1.4 million sq ft, the highest quarterly level since 2019, supported by expansion activities from the BFSI sector. Citywide net absorption reached +412,400 sq ft for the quarter, bringing the overall availability rate to trend further downward, while YTD rental growth recorded +6.1%. In the retail sector, total retail sales remained resilient in Q3. The overall high street vacancy rate remained broadly stable during the quarter, chiefly supported by more active leasing commitments in Mongkok. Leasing activity in Hong Kong Island districts moderated somewhat. Grade A office leasing market:BSFI expansion demand fuels leasing momentum The Q3 2026 period marked another active quarter for Hong Kong's Grade A office market. Total new leased area reached 1.4 million sq ft in Q3, the highest quarterly level since 2019. The banking, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) sector, and consumer products / manufacturing sectors, were the key demand drivers, with BFSI occupiers largely expansion-led. Citywide net absorption reached +412,400 sq ft in the quarter. This performance helped pull down the overall availability rate 0.4 percentage point q-o-q to 19.1%. Core district rents continued to outperform non-core areas. Greater Central rents continued to climb by a further 3.0% q-o-q in Q3, while non-core area rental level declines further narrowed. Rents in Hong Kong East and Hong Kong South edged up slightly in Q3. The overall citywide rental level rose by 1.7% q-o-q in Q3, bringing YTD rental growth to +6.1%. John Siu, Managing Director, Hong Kong, Cushman & Wakefield,said, "Rents in Greater Central grew by 13% YTD, reflecting strong demand for prime offices. However, mid-priced Grade A offices, particularly those with net effective rents of around HK$45-60 psf, are expected to continue facing headwinds, as abundant existing space and forthcoming supply across multiple submarkets within this price range is likely to sustain intense competition." Siu added, "Looking ahead, positive market momentum is likely to partly offset the scheduled 1.2 million sq ft of new supply in Q4, keeping the availability rate broadly stable at 19% to 20% at the year-end. With a decelerating supply pipeline beyond 2026, availability may have passed its cyclical peak in 2025, but non-core areas will continue to face absorption pressure. Full-year rental growth in Greater Central is now projected to grow by +12% to +14%, supporting the citywide Grade A office rental level to rise by +5% to +7% in 2026." Retail leasing market: Retail sales growth remains resilient, with Mongkok leading high street leasing activities Hong Kong retail sales growth remained resilient in Q3, driven by growing tourist arrivals and stronger economic fundamentals supporting local consumption sentiment. The city's overall retail sales for the January to August 2026 period reached HK$266 billion, up 8.5% y-o-y. Among key retail categories, the Jewellery & Watches sector recorded the strongest performance, recording y-o-y sales growth of 22.6%. Other sectors, such as Medicines & Cosmetics (+5.0%) and Fashion & Accessories (+3.2%), recorded more modest...

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