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Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends – New concepts for a changing market

  • Written by Media Outreach
HONG KONG SAR - Media OutReach - 31 August 2023 - Cushman & Wakefield, a leading global real estate services firm, today released its annual Greater China Retail Supply/Demand Trends report. According to the report, by Q2 2023, the total prime retail property stock in the core markets in the 16 major cities in Greater China we track totalled 106.0 million sq m. Many international and domestic brands either opened their first store or accelerated their business expansion in China, demonstrating an increasing demand for retail space in the market. The total premium core city retail property net absorption across the Greater China market for the first half of the year was 2.66 million sq m. The overall vacancy rate seen in the 16 major cities in Greater China decreased to 11.01% in Q2 2023. The supply/demand rundown for 18 city core area-level markets in Greater China (Q2 2023)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield Research
Duke Zhen, Managing Director, Head of Retail Services, China, Cushman & Wakefield, said, "Since 2023, China's Ministry of Commerce has organised a number of 'Consumption Boosting Year' activities and introduced a series of measures to optimise consumption supply and boost consumer confidence. With the implementation of a package of these consumption policies, the Chinese consumer market has fully recovered. Ahead, the size of China's retail market will continue to expand, with new retail models and technologies expected to drive greater transformation within the retail industry in China and at the same time meet the ever-changing and increasing needs of consumers in the country." China's retail property market is and will continue to be a popular investment destination for investors, developers and retailers, given the measures from the central and local governments to stimulate consumption, Chinese consumers' continual pursuit in upgrading the goods that they buy, the launch of retail property C-REITs, and the general sustainable development within the overall retail industry. Shaun Brodie, Head of Business Development Services, East China & Greater China Research Content, Head of Greater China Occupier Research, Cushman & Wakefield said, "In Greater China, consumer demand volume still has potential to be further expanded. Looking forward to the future, a series of policies to promote consumption will be implemented to drive this expansion as well as the upgrading of China's consumer market. Retailers and landlords of shopping centres will need to keep up with the latest market trends and constantly innovate to meet the increasingly diverse consumption needs of Chinese consumers." In order to cater to the changing market and increasingly diversified needs of Chinese consumers, shopping centre owners and retailers will continue to try to broaden the consumption market and innovate new business models and retail concepts. In terms of demand, the main focus trends are and will be as follows:
  • The general boosting of consumption;
  • Chinese brand expansion;
  • Auto brand demand, and;
  • Pop culture-driven development.
Looking ahead, we expect a number of factors, including a series of pro-consumption policies and individual city initiatives, to drive retail market growth. Beijing By the end of H1 2023, the total stock in Beijing's retail market was 16.1 million sq m, of which shopping centres recorded 14.2 million sq m. With improving consumer sentiment, customer footfall in shopping centres in the city gradually rebounded in H1 2023. Additionally, new store openings were mainly high-end boutiques and the launches of branded first stores, especially in the high-end fashion retail sector. As of H1 2023, the average asking rental in the core submarkets dropped slightly to RMB2,250 per sq m per month, while the vacancy rate remained stable at 10%. With the gradual recovery of the consumer market, the pace of upgrading and renewal in the Beijing retail market picked up. Around 1 million sq m of new supply is scheduled to enter the market in H2 2023. We expect that the continued enhancement of the retail environment and higher project quality will create new consumption growth points and boost the development of Beijing as an international consumption centre city in the near future. Shanghai According to the Shanghai Municipal Bureau of Statistics, the city's consumer goods retail sales totalled RMB937.8 billion in H1 2023, increasing by 23.5% y-o-y. Strong retail market fundamentals have continued to attract interest in Shanghai's retail market from brands, investors and developers, as reflected in the launch of five new projects during H1 2023. By the end of Q2 2023, the overall vacancy rate in the Shanghai mid- to high-end shopping centre market fell to 9.6%, down 0.5 percentage points q-o-q. Demonstrating the strong recovery in the retail market, this is the lowest vacancy rate recorded for the city's prime retail property market since 2022. Meanwhile, the...

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