SCOTUS could inject same-sex marriage into races

Same-sex marriage, which has barely generated a peep in most of this fall’s political races, could soon make an unexpected appearance on the campaign trail if the Supreme Court announces that it will rule on whether the Constitution guarantees gay marriage rights.

Gay rights advocates are adamant that a fresh move by the Supreme Court to weigh in on the issue won’t hurt candidates who support same-sex marriage, but some analysts and Republican strategists say any attention to the issue is likely to energize social conservatives and push moderate voters who lean conservative on social issues away from Democrats, particularly in the South.

Key Senate races are taking place in states, such as Arkansas, Louisiana and North Carolina, that have outlawed same-sex marriage only to face legal challenges. Conservatives in these places who fear the high court is trying to broaden the practice beyond the 19 states that have already legalized it could turn out in higher numbers.

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“In the short term, raising the salience of same-sex marriage is bad for the Democratic vis-à-vis the Republican Party, simply because of the geographic arrangement of the states in play for control of the Senate,” said New York University political science professor Patrick Egan. “They’re states that lag behind the rest of the country on same-sex marriage.”

Raising the issue would put Democrats in these close contests in a particularly tough spot, because they would risk turning off voters on an issue that is widely supported in their own party.

Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-La.), for example, “does not want to face reporters questioning her about same-sex marriage,” according to Egan.

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A total of seven petitions asking the high court to resolve the legal debate over same-sex marriage went before the justices at their so-called long conference Monday — a closed-door meeting that serves as the first opportunity for the justices to consider filings that piled up over the summer and decide which cases they’ll add to the court’s agenda for the term that begins Oct. 6.

There was no word from the court Monday about whether it would wade into the same-sex marriage issue in the coming term. Such an announcement could come as soon as Tuesday or not until the court convenes next week. The justices could also put off a decision until a similar conference late next week or carry the petitions over from week to week.

A move by the court to issue what’s likely to be a definitive ruling on a federal constitutional right to same-sex marriage would surely vault the issue back onto the front pages.

“The grass roots would be outraged by the idea of a Roe v. Wade of same-sex marriage decisions,” said Peter Sprigg of the Family Research Council.

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The same state-by-state logic that favored President Barack Obama deferring executive actions on immigration until after the November election would also suggest that Democrats may wish to keep same-sex marriage off the radar screen until this fall’s contests are decided.

However, supporters of same-sex marriage say they don’t see the issue perking up in this fall’s campaigns — in part because it has been so dead but also because the winds of public opinion are blowing so clearly in the direction of allowing same-sex marriage.

“At least where gay issues are concerned, this has to be the most boring election in a long time,” said Fred Sainz of the Human Rights Campaign. “Even our foes are not saying the word ‘gay’ because they realize it doesn’t help them to be anti-gay even in the reddest of red states.”...