What is causing the crime wave on the Central Coast?

Is crime on the rise on the Central Coast? Stats recorded over the last 5 years show that certain crimes have definitely increased within the region. However, many other crimes have in fact fallen in recent years. 

This article delves more into which crimes have gone down and which have gone up in the last five years, as well as examining the likely causes of this. 

Central Coast Crime Statistics 2021

As this Riviere Law study examines, Central Coast stats from 2021 show a big shift in certain crime patterns over the last 5 years. A few crimes have definitely become more common. For example, there has been an almost 14% increase in drug offences and an almost 9% increase in sexual assaults. These are both worryingly higher than the NSW average. 

However, there is some good news. Crimes such as motor vehicle theft and breaking and entering a dwelling have both seen a 14% decrease over the last 5 years, which is more than the NSW average. Liquor offences have meanwhile seen an 18% decrease. 

The causes of this are obvious. Much of the dramatic changes in criminal behaviour have occurred in the last two years and correlate with lockdowns enforced during Covid–19. It also explains the 51% increase in ‘other offences’ (which is likely made up mostly of Covid-19 restriction breaches). 

Lake Macquarie Crime Statistics 2021

What about if you compare the crime rate of the Central Coast to Lake Macquarie? Has the crime rate increased at a greater rate in the Central Coast? 

Looking at the same stats, it would seem that drug offences and sexual assaults have not spiked quite as much in Lake Macquarie in the last five years, however they have both still increased by 7.6% and 11% respectively. This would suggest that it’s not just the Central Coast that has seen a surge in these crimes. 

Motor vehicle theft and breaking and entering in Lake Macquarie have both decreased too. In fact, there has been an almost 8% decrease in motor vehicle theft and just over an 11% decrease in breaking and entering from a dwelling. This is not as dramatic a decrease as in the Central Coast, but still greater than the NSW average. 

Conclusion

Certain crimes such as sexual assault and drug offences have indeed increased across the Central Coast over the last 5 years. Correlations with Covid-19 lockdowns would suggest that frustration from social isolation could be a cause of this. The increase does seem to be greater than the NSW average, but it is not drastically more than Lake Macquarie. This would suggest that there isn’t really a ‘crime wave’ happening on the Central Coast. 

Besides motor vehicle theft and breaking and entering have decreased at a greater rate than the NSW average. This would suggest that the Central Coast is in fact safer when it comes to theft-related crimes. 

Because these shifts in crime rates correlate with lockdowns, we are likely to see a change in stats in the next coming years. Crime rates in the Central Coast may return to pre-pandemic levels, or there may be a permanent shift caused by Covid-19. Until more stats are available, it cannot be said whether there is truly a crime wave.